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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • I haven’t seen any data suggesting degradation is worse in smaller capacity batteries, but even if it is, degradation as a whole isn’t as a big a deal as might be believed. It was significant ten years ago, but insignificant today.

    I’ll take your word for it on the torque point. I don’t remember much about EV torque comparisons but it makes sense on the face of it that if you lose a bunch of the energy, some of the torque goes with it.

    On battery replacement due to degradation:

    Across all years and models, outside of big recalls, only 2.5% have been replaced. This increase from last year is entirely due to older cars. For cars older than 2015, replacement rates are 13%, but under 1% for cars from 2016 and newer.

    Non recall replacements (by year of manufacture):

    • 2011 - 30.00%
    • 2012 - 15.94%
    • 2013 - 9.81%
    • 2014 - 6.81%
    • 2015 - 3.90%

    That’s an order of magnitude improvement in half a decade, and the best of that is already ten years old. Battery technology is only getting better, and with better batteries, we could afford to put smaller ones in a commuter car and sell them cheaply.












  • Sounds like a supply problem with copper. I read a couple weeks ago about some progress with salt based batteries. Progress is being made on that front. Progress that would be exponentially faster if the manufacturer’s wanted to.

    Regardless of the materials issue, the industry could adapt. There’s oodles of money to make significant change, and of course they would if they had to in order to continue making money at all. Just like any industry that experiences challenges. Fracking was once considered far too expensive. Then they figured out how to guide drills beneath the surface and what do you know, now it’s mainstream.

    Ideally, if this were to occur, the industry would realize what you’ve pointed out and simply reboot all the small hatchbacks and wagons they used to make, as a method of stretching the amount of minerals we have over a longer period of time.

    Blue sky thinking but maybe the governments of the world would realize the mineral issue, and instead of allowing 100 million cars to be manufactured each year, they took those minerals and created a transportation network with them that would render personal vehicles irrelevant.

    I don’t see that happening in my lifetime though.


  • The weight is certainly a large factor in the crumbling of infrastructure. A bridge made 50 years ago was engineered based on traffic loads they extrapolated at the time. In the 1980’s, there were around 100 million vehicles across the United States. Today, that number has nearly tripled.

    Combine a tripling of the number of vehicles with the increasing average weight - sedan or not - and that’s a much larger number than a lot of infrastructure was designed to handle. As a result, roads and bridges are degrading faster and faster.

    This is a primary factor in the push to get people into smaller vehicles, which weigh less. As FireRetardant pointed out, CAFE makes this difficult as manufacturers are heavily incentivized to make these longer wheelbase vehicles. Which, surprise surprise, weigh more.


  • Every personal vehicle I’ve owned has been used. There’s nothing wrong with them so long as they’ve been maintained. Commercial vehicles might be replaced every ten or twenty years depending on the use.

    If combustion vehicles were banned tomorrow, it’s not like the industry would just collapse. The manufacturers have so many fresh off the line vehicles piling up that they could stop assembly today and still have stock for a few years.

    They could retool the factories inside a couple years, and resume churning out EVs as if nothing changed. The major issue we’d face would be the infrastructure crumbling around the additional weight, but that’s another discussion entirely.