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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: July 20th, 2023

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  • No one can help tell you that, unfortunately. The hype squad will insist we’re at the inflection point of exponential growth and point to Anthropic using Claude to come up with novel optimizations for training Claude. The haters will insist that a statistical word model will never be useful because it’ll never be accurate, and they’ll never find a way to make inference cheap enough to be viable.

    Turns out if your job is selling 95% correct words (generic business people, mediocre writers, etc), then a word guessing machine that does a 95% good enough job may be sufficient to have value. But if your proposition is in being actually good at something, then you’ll continue to outcompete the machines. It’ll never be able to displace classics, but I can’t imagine a world where it doesn’t displace human-slop erotica, murder mystery, etc. where the quality was less important than volume.

    As to whether it’ll plateau, I’m not sure. It’ll obviously never be anything other than a word guessing machine, but it turns out there’s a lot of interactions with the world that can be described with words. About 3-6 months ago people generally noticed a big change in how well things like Claude code worked, and it had nothing to do with model improvements. Maybe the same model + new secret sauce can yield yet another improvement.

    Anthropic and OpenAI will never recoup their burned CapEx but that doesn’t strictly mean that inference will never be cheap enough to be viable. If the big model shops explode from bad economics, it’ll still leave behind open source models that could be “good enough” that could run on your local machine. Is that going to be sufficiently “good enough” for the 95% correct use cases? I dunno. No one knows.

    So… I dunno. For you, all this means is we’re gonna have a big economic reckoning at some point and if you’re good but not great at your job, your job involves selling words, and your job doesn’t require 100% precision, I’d reckon there’s a chance LLMs stick in your world, to some degree.

    And before I get banned for this take, please note I’m not justifying the massive ecological and economic damage the process has and will do on the way to whatever end it reaches. Reactivating coal plants for power to feed an economic bubble that also itself destroys the environment is almost certainly too high a price to pay to replace human slop with AI slop.



  • claude performs acceptably at repetitive tasks when I have an existing pattern for it to follow. “Replicate PR 123, but to add support for object Bar instead of Foo”. If I get some of this busy work in my queue I typically just have claude do it while I’m in a meeting.

    I’d never let it do refactors or design work, but as a code generation tool that can use existing code as a template, it’s useful. I wouldn’t pay an arm and a leg for it, but burning $2 while I’m in a meeting to kill chore tasks is worth it to me.


  • Neither do I - I use either my phone, or my smart TV, or my fire stick. SSO works fine there, or you can use the QR based session transfer to SSO on your phone and then “sign in on another device” or whatever by scanning the QR your other device is showing. I think they call it quick connect or something.

    It does what you want.

    And if you think Grandma can’t figure out scanning a QR code, Grandma is also not gonna figure out MFA lol.











  • Yea I’m gonna do zfs or something when I get set up properly again. I’ve got 2 16TB HDDs and Storage Spaces won’t let me pull a drive out :v

    I think I’m gonna have to make a new Storage Space and slowly grow that one and shrink the other as I basically shift the extra storage budget between the two until the data is on just one of my drives without redundancy, and then I’ll pull that drive, dual boot Ubuntu or something, format, get everything prepared, and then mount, copy, start services, and then go back and kill the old storage spaces and then never run Windows for anything meaningful again.


  • I need to migrate off Docker Desktop for Windows and Storage Spaces but I fear the process will be difficult due to my data volume and the stupidity of Windows. I should never have gone Windows, but I wanted to use Steam Big Picture off the media PC and didn’t want to deal with getting that functional on Linux.

    But Docker Desktop for Windows keeps crashing WSL and bricking the network devices randomly, and also continuously grows memory consumption until the machine reboots. Piece of shit.