With all the talk of tariffs, I’ve seen more or less this argument:
“Once the tariffs go in place, companies will start manufacturing in the USA and that’s good thing.”
However, when I think about being able to manufacture something like a laptop computer, or a car, these are both operations that require a lot of things:
- the input components to build the thing
- skilled labor that can manufacture the thing
- supply-chains that are in place from initial build all the way to retail
The premise seems to be: “OK, tariffs go in, someone INSTANTLY sets up a company that manufactures X, then USA wins”.
However, for someone to want to take the “bet” on setting up a really expensive factory, they’d have to believe that the tariff will be in place a long time, because if it is NOT… then they have made a terrible investment and the new factory will be instantly non-viable.
Am I crazy? Am I missing something? I understand that it would be great if we had domestic manufacturing but it seems like the people that are behind tariffs think you just snap your fingers and there is a factory cranking out laptops, when in my understanding this is a process that requires a huge amount of money and time.
My thinking is that the amount of people / companies in the USA that have enough capital to start up a manufacturing company like this want to make sure it’s a relatively safe bet before pulling the trigger, and if past tariff behavior from Mr. Trump is any indication, we can’t count on these tariffs being present for a long time.
Well, I think the idea is that with the tariffs this will no longer be true. There will be a Chinese widget that cost $5 from China with $90 of tariffs on it (making it $95 to the end user) and an American product that costs $55. That American one is only cheaper in a tariff’d world.
The other problem is that the $55 American made one will mysteriously become $94 because doing anything else would be leaving money on the table and therefore unconscionable to American business owners.
Tariffs have a nasty habit of making local goods increase in price accordingly too.
This is exactly the thing I can seem to get anyone to agree with me on … Imported goods will never become significantly more expensive than American for the reason you just said…
There’s a lot of money in figuring out the right margin below the imported product such that they’ll lose some sales but ultimately profit more because of the increased profit margins. Not that you were seriously saying it would be a dollar cheaper but most I talk with tend to think that difference is much bigger than I expect which tends toward single digit percentage differences
But they’re not going to increase wages to account for us having to spend 55 dollars on something that used to cost 5. So the end result is just that people end up with less overall. I’m cool with limiting consumerism, but this isn’t the way to do it imo. And it’s not going to make us “richer” as a nation.
In both scenarios the profit margin is removed, or the customers are bearing the significant increase in cost. Hence the recession - the stock market plummets or inflation goes up. Or both.