Hey, From what I heard, the budget needs to be approved by a 60% majority in the Senate. This means that the Democrats can currently veto a budget. If this is extended without end, could they functionnaly disolve the federal government and maybe start a new union of Democratic states? Do taxes continue to be perceived? What happens legally if the shutdown lasts until the midterms? Can states form another Union without leaving the current Union?
This is mostly a legal question, because the Democrats are never going to agree to such thing, and because the Republican would then start a civil war to stop it.
The record, the GOP could, if they wanted to, have a simple-majority vote to change the rules for this particular vote, such that it would only require a simple majority to pass.
They don’t want to do that, because this shut down gives trump extreme power to determine what is or isn’t “essential”. So, ICE, FBI, law enforcement, the Military will continue working/operating without pay. same with the fuckers building the ballroom. people who are not essential- like national parks, the government’s cybersecurity guys, people that support wick or snap or HUD etc… the courts…
yeah. So. basically it’s all just a giant cash and power grab. Nazis doing Nazis shit.
In any case, if somehow they manage to not ever get a bill past, yes, eventually the government collapses and shit gets real fucked real quick.
Thats more or less what the GOP want, though. which is why they made it incredibly objectionable and refused to negotiate with the Dems.
and yes, if the government gets funded again, you will still owe taxes.
Just for context, almost every federal court is a branch of a state court. State courts are still functioning. This is how a lot (not all) of the govt is.
So yeah lots of workers furloughed but barely a single building unoccupied due to the shutdown.
This is equally true of cybersecurity. For example, a non federal sysadmin may have privs to install, remove, maintain security software. That software is a private company and 24/7 SOC.
Source: im a apart of your 24/7 SOC with lots of govt clients, many clients with both federal and state workers, etc. don’t worry. Our govt IT Infrastructure isnt protected by feds, it’s protected by firms like rapid7, Huntress, Crowd strike, Sentinel one, etc.
Just for context, almost every federal court is a branch of a state court.
This is not true at all.
Federal courts are part of the judicial branch, not the executive branch. So they don’t shut down when the executive branch “shuts down”, because the shutdown laws don’t apply to them. As a practical matter federal courts can keep running for a while using saved up court fee revenue. They will eventually run out of that money and gave some tough choices about what to do.
They operate under the exact same roof. Usually labeled as two separate addresses for tax purposes. It is exactly true.
Repubs also know from experience the dems will fold on threats of scuttling the ship of state.
Just like increasing the borrowing limit in 2024 was it, or 23, and not defaulting. Biden said for months he would not negotiate, and then folded like a cheap suit when it came down to it. Not a one-off situation the Democrats always fold.
Dems will give in on terroristic threats. There is no improving anything until we get new opposition politicians that is all there is to it. If Hakeem and Chuck are still running the show you might as well not pay attention because it will just harm your mental well-being. Not a single challenge for any leadership positions what the fuck is wrong with this party?
And to add to that, the Republicans can remove the Senate *filibuster at literally any time with a simple majority vote so it’s clear they think it still serves them to leave it in place. They will remove it when/if that calculus changes.
It’s insane that such a pivotal rule is removal by simple majority
Until the 1980’s, the Federal government never shut down if they didn’t have a budget. Instead, it would operate as previously budgeted and departments would forgo large expenditures. An opinion written by the Attorney General changed that.
I would imagine it could change back to the old system if pushed.
The military can only be funded for two years. But otherwise some things are indefenent. Laws would still be valid. But with nobody getting paid it would crumble, yes. Theres a reason why these things typically last weeks.
Two years at peace or at war?
War is peace now, hate is love, etc. Perpetual 1984.
Constitutionally, it doesn’t matter. Practically, the two year limit has been very generously interpreted.
It’s just the apportionment of funds. So the military can’t coast forever without congress giving it money.
The Federal system is like any other pact. It needs everyone involved to follow the rules in order to function.
Yes, if a group decides to destroy the system and the rest of the people decide not to fight, the system collapses.
It worked in Rome for a bit until the main guy ended up in the river
Anybody “could” do anything. It’s all made up. Government is just a set of rules we all agree to play by, so any group of people could “decide” to stop playing by the rules and start playing by different rules. That’s why the Confederacy happened.
The only question is, do you have the strength (militarily, usually) to back it up. Because, no, legally what you’re talking about isn’t a thing.
Not that there’s an alternative, of course, if no agreement is reached. The government just stops. Taxes continue, the military goes on (at least for two years), but that’s about it. There’s no default state or last good save for us to revert back to.
The “Big Beautiful Bill Act” was a budget that passed through the Senate with a 51-50 vote on July 1, 2025. (The tie vote coming from the Vice president because not all of the Republicans to voted for it.)
Only 4 budget bills have passed without using the reconciliation process since 1974. It is pretty much the expected process at this point.
They could just get rid of the filibuster.
When you do it through reconciliation they only have 20 hours on the floor, so I doubt the Democrats would even bother trying to filibuster for 20 hours because it ultimately does nothing but waste their day. It would go into effect either way
There is a process called reconciliation that gets triggered in the senate in a budget impasse situation. I would say it typically involves a whole lot of horse trading but at the end is a bill that can pass with a simple majority. So I don’t think either party will be able to drag this out indefinitely or just to the midterms.
Dragging this out generally is a bad idea for Democrats. The cult following of stable genius is going to accept the negative consequences longer as long as they get fed a narrative along the lines of “we prevent immigrants from getting health care and drain the swamp of lizard people.” Or whatever. The Democrats will feel their feeble support dwindle when unpaid government workers are done with their savings, which will happen before the cult runs out of patience. The whole battle is mainly fought on the backs of people whose only fault was choosing a career in government. The Democrats will take pity on them and eventually agree to the least dehumanizing compromise you can negotiate at the “12th” hour.
Federal workers will get back pay. You’re parroting the right’s messaging. People wanted the left to fight.
Because of how the people gave the right all of the levers of government last election, this is one of the few areas where dems have any power to wield - senate needs 60% to pass any funding legislation.
You wanted a battle, the dems took it to the mattresses. We should be praising them for being bold and we, the left, should be seeking out those government workers who are struggling the most and doing gofundme’s to care for them. This is a war and they are soldiers on the front lines, directly in the line of fire. We need to be their support regiment.
Conversely, the right needs to feel the pain of what a lack of federal government looks like, because a lot of them don’t value it at all, because they don’t understand how it serves them. They only see it as “protection money” that come out of their paycheck. For them, we need to find the union workers who left the left. We need to gain back the dirt farmers in Montana, the disenfranchised Hispanics in Southern Texas and in the burroughs of NYC and the suburbanite moms in Bucks County. Moreover, we need to fight like hell to show that we give a damn and have a spine and that we will, we will, fight for them.
Back pay is not helping that much when your mortgage is on the line today/next month after you have exhausted all your savings. Of which I’m gonna guess post covid there aren’t that much. Your soldiers are going to suffer bad. Your go fund me idea is honorable; I don’t see it making enough of a dent. That would presuppose a level of knowledge among the general public, an awareness of these issues, and I don’t see that either. In a way, it’s that lack of awareness that gave the world Orange 2.0.
The Republicans have the stronger arm in this arm wrestle. I don’t like it either. Their people don’t care if you chop off their fingers if at the end they can say they owned the Dems. If education works here, go for it. I don’t think the time frame is long enough for this to work. They’ve already swallowed veterans getting less health care and that their favorite valet José has been sent to El Salvador. Are grocery price increases not outpacing inflation? They aren’t issue-based, they are vibe-based and the vibe is own the Dems.
In theory I agree with you. I’m not parroting anyone, I’m trying to look at this realistically. This is not the first shutdown rodeo. And it sucks if your team feels a certain level of responsibility to the country and all its people, which is more than I can see coming from the clown car load of people currently in charge. At some point the leadership of the Democrats will feel the damage to continue is going to hurt them more at the ballot box than to package a turd of a compromise in shiny wrapping paper. I want your vision of the Democrats but I think we’ll get mine unfortunately.
Here’s the problem: SCOTUS more or less Ok’d the previously illegal “pocket rescission”.
This means the administration can literally decide to not fund anything appropriated by Congress. That makes negotiations for funding anything pointless. There has to be a line somewhere. At least (for now I think) the administration can’t fund things without congressional approval. It’s literally the only leverage Democrats have.
Dems should refuse to fund anything until pocket recissions are disallowed really.
Just make a law part of the funding bill, it’s relatived afterall.
I don’t doubt that. My crystal ball tells me they will compromise at some point for the good of the workers, for the good of the country - whichever line works best at that moment. I wouldn’t want them to do that but I’m pretty sure it will pan out that way eventually.
Fuck your cave to r threats advice, fuck what dumbass voters think, real leaders make public opinion. Dems will cave to terroristic threats because ivy league suits tell the public what you just regurgitated.
When is the last time those suits were right about anything though? Not about the last election were they? Not about the 2024, 2020, or 2016 elections.
