Which one was he again? Was he the Michael Scott or the Patrick Bateman??
It’s a safe bet.
The bubble will burst, that’s our boom-bust cycle. I think we’re at the point where it is always a few bad decisions away.
I’m actually impressed that it’s still going
Coincidentally, The FED was made to stop boom-bust cycles before WWI. It’s never, ever worked, and it will never start working.
“the market cam remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
Yeah the fed did a great job preventing the Great Depression lmao. You know what really stops boom/bust ? Taxing the wealthy and holding them accountable for their crimes. Also all those pesky monopoly regulations, post Great Depression regulations like glass stegal and other regulations that have been systematically dismantled in the last 40 years.
Can you tell us what the FED is? The Federal Reserve?
Yeah, that’s another term for the Federal Reserve.
He’s predicted around sixteen market crashes so far by my count. The dude got lucky once and has been riding the fame ever since. I’m not necessarily disagreeing that this whole thing will crash, but timing is the important part and he keeps missing it. I’ll not be making any financial decisions on his recommended timeline anytime soon. He may as well be Dave Ramsay imo.
Trump will make sure it doesn’t crash by avoiding all regulations and anything that would make shareholders sweat.
“AI investment” is the reason why we’re not in a full blown “official” recession. He doesn’t want a recession for “his” economy while he is president. When the AI bubble bursts the GOP will be blaming the Democrats and will ask to be put back on power again
The question is can he float the problem for that long, the current pace of AI investment simply requires more returns than are possible, something like 1/5 of the entire GDP of the united states at a minimum yearly. At some point the emperors lack of clothes will become impossible to hide no matter how much they try.
Not to mention US debt is currently in a precarious position right now. I don’t understand how one can even possibly bailout these companies while the USA is sitting on a dicey position itself.
I once saw an old political gadfly (Lyndon LaRouche) described as having predicted 15 of the last 3 economic downturns. Sounds like this guy.
He’s been saying this for 4 years
But he’ll be right everyday after it happens
And it’s somehow a surprise to you that the worlds richest corporations collectively can keep up an investment bubble for four years?
They’ll not be able to do it indefinitely, and profitability of any LLM business is not on the horizon so far.
I’m saying Burry’s opinion on the timing is irrelevant.
He calls a crash basically every quarter since the '08 crash recovered. If you shorted every time he suggested something was going to burst “sooner than later”, you would already be bankrupt.
The thing is the collapse is like a random chance every week/day. At some point some human being will decide fuckem im not working all weekend to bail them out again and that’s when the crash will happen. That’s literally what happened in 2008, bear sterns and Lehman brothers for decades just rolled over their debt until one day the banks were just like yeah nah we had enough go ask the govt for help and that was the crash. It easily could have happened months earlier or months later, some bank execs were just in a room and finally decided they wanted to get off the ride one and that was the day it crashed. Just human emotion at that point if it would have happened the prior month or following month instead.
Exactly this. The entire market is held together by people who are willing to bend over backwards to keep it working. And all it takes is two or three of those to decide “enough is enough” at the same time, and suddenly all of the market’s sins are laid bare. And at that point, the investors panic and everything snowballs.
Unemployment benefits in the USA? LOL! It’s gonna be a real shitshow when the bubble bursts.
Unemployment benefits in California are $450/week max. The average rent for a one bedroom apartment in California ranges between $2,100 and $2,460 per month, depending on the source and specific metro market.
Just like the housing bubble, right?
Right??? <while wearing big titties>
Soapy* tiddies
Mr. Money Mustache’s latest post is about this and I hope is right. Basically he thinks it will not destroy retirement, viewing market panic as a recurring historical pattern driven by fear rather than fundamental economic ruin. Instead of reacting to macroeconomic anxiety, he emphasizes that true wealth stems from human productivity and resilience, suggesting individuals ignore the news cycle and focus on personal financial habits. Also recaps the basics so a great reatd. We can do it one step at a time to increase freedom!
They’ve been saying the “bubble is going to burst” for a while now. If they keep saying it eventually they might be right. Then everyone will jump up and down trying to claim they were the ones who rightly predicted it. A quick search by date shows plenty of articles discussing the AI bubble from 2025, 2024, and even a rare few from 2023. Three years of doomsayers waters it down to meaninglessnes even if they‘re eventually right.
it has all the markers, unless the corporations drastically restructure their debt or the product suddenly finds an actual demonstrable use, then it’s going to continue being a bubble. all that requires for it to burst is a large swath of people vested in the bubble to get itchy enough to pull enough money out for the value to be questioned or need to be proved, and AI currently is wildly expensive incuring huge amounts of debt, which is being passed around in a very quick and difficult to account for manner, and has no proven value that can be demonstrated as of yet. to be clear, by demonstrated value I mean you can pull out the paperwork and show where is currently profitable. so here’s the ad revenue, or here’s the government contracts, here the subscription payments, something. they are all operating at a loss and betting their entire companies that those avenues will be profitable eventually, but they aren’t currently and that’s with a VERY heavy hand on the scale, we already have the cost of data center power and water being charged to average people, total failure in providing value to military and police efforts, and people rejecting AI content as acceptable entertainment, it’s all a bust no matter how much they insist, and the application as a digital creative tool is unlikely, it’s jarring and can’t be consistent from one shot to the next causing the exact problems you train to avoid in serial art and animation. digital creative tools generally require a large effort and testing from actual artists in development to be even marginally useful in a production pipeline and AI tried to be useful without any input also with the hope it could simply bypass the people who do the creating, the problem is, it can’t, it can only look at what it sees, fail to identify basic fundamental art principals, and try and remix the art it can look at. look at any AI attempt to recreate cubism, it can’t, it’s totally confused by the concept of incorporating movement and primitive shapes into complex work.
I bought a house in 2016 from a couple moving to Texas saying the housing market was going to crash. I sold it for a 400k profit 5 years later. Everyone says it and they’ll be right when it happens but when you keep saying for many years, you will be right eventually
A broken clock is right once a decade.
Id like to think that people are more aware of the circumstances that lead up to a bubble forming and popping.
Big short investor who has been wrong about every prediction.
just hope the crash and burn doesnt singe the rest of us
Oh boy, its going to fuck us especially hard.
Tax payers paid for 2008, their going to indebt our kids once again.
I had a boomer normie ask me how to use AI to develop his new “business” website telling me that he didn’t want to hire a developer if the developer would just use AI anyway.
This guy doesn’t know what a router is, and was asking me for help trying to understand what the AI was telling him, and it was the most basic shit.
When the normies are trying to invest in AI, they’re the last to invest and know to throw money at it. That was a big signal to me that the bubble is about to pop. Money is running out and the boomers are trying to get in on it.
Maybe, maybe not. Bitcoin circa 2017 underwent a similar transformation and if you avoided that investment you would have missed a big opportunity. Time will tell but mass awareness isn’t the predictor.
Exactly this. If you hear people talking about investments around the Thanksgiving table, its time to bail. All the smart people got in months ago and have left, they are just looking for bag holders now.
What about every other darn day, at lunch, from your higher ups at work
Lmao, I think all the smart people avoided investing in AI in the first place 😂
ah there was major money to be made if you had the money to start with
Why would someone ask a person to explain an AI response they didn’t understand? Like, you’ve already offloaded the most important part from a human brain (getting a fucking answer)… Why wouldn’t you at least then ASK THE AI TO REPHRASE AND SUMMARIZE the response you didn’t understand? That’s the thing it’s actually good at doing ffs.
When the normies are trying to invest in AI, they’re the last to invest and know to throw money at it
They are also the largest group by far. Doesn’t really mean much aside from the fact that adoption is now widespread.
I don’t think it’s going to add up to a trillion dollars a year though, lol.
AI and the Enshittification Era w/ Cory Doctorow https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dAIJRjb-Bw
I don’t think it’s going to add up to a trillion dollars a year though, lol.
It will. The real question is - what will be the price of a loaf of bread in the multi-trillion dollar economy?
nope. their capex alone is going to destroy them, then their investors will realize they’re all fucked and the real fun will begin
deleted by creator
The CEO of SoftBank says they need five trillion a year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/softbank-groups-ceo-says-5-112543307.html
…to “meet demand.” …
He’s saying “there is no bubble.”
You’d think he would know better…
Full disclosure, I did not read that. But I did see the headline.
Now that I have read that, I feel like it is a cry for help.
“Those who refuse to evolve are closing down their world. Those who condemn AI are themselves spitting upward,” Son added.
“If you owe the bank $100 that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
J. Paul Getty
how much skin does Softbank have in this game.
Didn’t they just start a partnership with one of the big US tech companies like 6 months ago or something?
Sam Altman or someone like that has probably got their tendrils in this guy’s head…
They are the ones, Oracle will soon not be paying anymore, because of Force Majeure (techcrunch.com) …
Well it is SoftBank.
Guess I’m going with AU then 🤷
That’s the real truth. Run like hell when luckless chumps show up looking all enthusiastic
If AI is so good they should try asking it that. See where that ends up.
That’s the right strategy. They want to use ai, so let them. No need to speak to professionals who will use ai anyway.
I can tell you how to use AI… for money.
Oh, great, thanks! You’re a real lifesaver. [Proceeds to pay more than he would have paid for the real developer, to spend more time to create vibe-coded tech-illiterate trash.]
That’s the great AI grift, by the time you realize it’s not working, you already spent your money.
All you got is some half baked product that kind of works maybe. But how do you deploy and support it especially when it goes wrong?
How do you recover the system? And get AI to patch the system and do the next release? And guarantee it all works because now your customers are angry and demanding it just work tomorrow.
AI is obviously a bubble.
That said, Burry has also predicted 6 of the last 2 crashes.
More like 20. Besides, most of these articles are just reporters misunderstanding Burry’s trades. Guy is a trader, in and out. By time you know his positions, he’s sold and moved on.
He got Tesla wrong. Very hard to underestimate meme stocks.
Does anyone expect a large business to not fail when theyve been as poorly run as Tesla?
Also can we talk about how Musk seemingly is propping up all his companies with the values of his other investments? And that most of that money is government contracts?
Calling a bubble is easy.
Calling the top of the bubble or the bottom of the crash is the more or less impossible part.
It could very well be a bubble, and come crashing down to a low point that is still higher than it is today.
I agree in principle. It’s getting harder to believe that is possible at this point.
A combination of 1) companies maturing their AI policy and ending the “infinite play time” model most have had since 2021 e.g. cutting spending and 2) open source and open parameter models becoming better and better and cheaper. Data centers will still be in demand for #2 but the ai providers will hurt.
I don’t follow this extremely closely, but didn’t most companies end number 1 at least 6+ months ago?
Some have, most haven’t. And those that have had mostly adopted the philosophy of “Every token spent is a a token spent well; except the ~10% of staff that abuse/misuse them”.
And with that philosophy, you naturally want to set the per-person budget at around the 90th highest spender. Which is what most did (some version of it).
So very few companies have actually set a truly restrictive policy. Just a “don’t abuse this” policy. But that will change IMO.
Just like this “bubble” has supposedly been about to pop for years.
More along the lines of - it’s been a bubble for years, and we’ve been hoping it’s about to pop. But, sadly, the longer it goes, the worse the pop will be.
Burry is going by hard numbers and making a rational call. The markets are not rational, which is why it is hard to predict the timing of a crash. There are no good reasons why TSLA should be over $30.
He’s a good person to heed for safe, longer term investment.
I own a beer bar, and we work with some friends who have a catering business that does pop ups on our patio. They’ve been using AI to generate flyers and then tag us to have us share them to our larger audience. I stopped doing it because they look like trash, get low engagement, and are off brand for our art-inspired space. They got upset with me that we weren’t helping promote, and I explained my position on their AI flyers, and they sent a very lengthy email back about how AI is being utilized by small businesses in ways that we’re still scratching the surface to understand its value. I popped the email into chatgpt and asked if it wrote that email and it said it did, lol. Now I have more work on my hands to design their flyers for them, but it’s worth it.
AI is being utilized by small businesses in ways that we’re still scratching the surface to understand its value
Exactly, that’s the point! Google and Microsoft can burn their billions of dollars scratching that surface to understand it better. For small businesses, it’s NOT ready as you saw through real business results.
it’s so bizarre to me that people who work with food don’t realize that the ai trash is producing images that are REVOLTING, do not look like food, and actively deter people from their products.
you’d be better off with a half lit shitty polaroid of actual food than putting that trash on your branding, so much of it is nightmare fuel
I had a friend in Uni who studied food science. She went on to work in marketing a a sculptor for advertisements. They sculptures were hand crafted to look delicious but would have been completely inedible, if anyone was stupid enough to eat them.
It is an art form and unfortunately a lot of people fail to appreciate art.
/me tries to eat the chiseled from marble pie… ooh, this tastes like owies
You’re definitely right, the food looks so phony. The thing that’s wild is half the time they make a flyer, there’s only bricks of yellow text on a black background that’s too much info to read. I’m visiting San Francisco right now and saw a pizza shop last night that their entire menu was AI garbage and was so shocked how prevalent it’s become.
I used to work in a wine store. Customers would always joke “hahaha i just pick them by the label 😂” and I would always say. That’s not stupid, wine is about aesthetics. Someone who makes good wine will appreciate the value of a good label. And the inverse is true, people with poor taste won’t care about their label, but they won’t be able to make good wine, either.
I’m saying judge a book by its cover. How else are you gonna know what’s in the book without looking at its cover??
. . . You’re supposed to open the book . . .
big fan of Our Daily Red because it doesn’t give my wife migraines lol.
valid points all over.
It’s always an “it’s inevitable” argument.
It’s also inevitable their pop-up gets replaced by humanoid robots next year, using the same logic.
I popped the email into chatgpt and asked if it wrote that email and it said it did, lol
It doesn’t work that way tho
I mean, it literally does though. The email sounded phony AF, especially knowing that the person’s first language isn’t English and it was overly proper sounding. I copy and pasted it into chatgpt and said “did you write this email?“ and it’s response was” yes, based on the writing style and phrasing, I wrote this content."
I’ve been using ChatGPT a bit at work lately, since they’ve already paid for the subscription for everyone. I’ve learned that it is a bad idea to ask it any leading question, because it is likely to just give you the answer you want to hear.
Someone put in the intro to the book Frankenstein into an ai checker and it confirmed it to be 100 percent written by an LLM. It’s not deterministic.
It’s not deterministic.
This is the first thing about LLMs always, and what most people can’t seem to understand.
LLMs are a thing where you give an input and get an output, and it happens to correspond to reality much of the time. But there’s no actual understanding there.
Exactly why it needs code to enforce repetitive results.
It does not remember things it made, so no. It doesn’t work that way.
It doesn’t remember but that won’t keep it from answering a question as to whether it thinks an email was AI generated. It’ll also be happy to confidently answer a question with a wrong answer to.
Doesn’t work that way. Only if they programmed LLMs to sign the work like using a hash you would be able to confirm or deny with 100% accuracy
A usual ramen spot I’ve been going to for the past few years for some reason replaced the old images of the food on their menu with AI-gen ones and it looked so weird. I saw it last time I went for my usual, but I kept looking at the art and like a Lovecraftian horror the longer I looked at it the worse the details appeared. It literally affected my appetite because psychologically I couldn’t help but think I was ordering some freak-ass food as depicted in the new ai-gen pictures, and the ramen just didn’t taste as good to me that day. And I don’t think I’ll go back anymore :(
You should tell them
The amount of food menus with it on is ridiculous. If you sell food you want it to look good, appetizing etc, so making it look like plastic tat is counter effective.
Second I immediately think they either don’t care or are uninterested in their product. That makes me question how much they care about their food, safety quality taste etc. It’s an immediate no for me.
I recently read a decent article (in Danish mind you), focused on the positions some volunteers had from getting more fans to their local football club… Because they now posted stuff on Facebook.
Then followed up by an expert on engagement, and statistics on about half the population felt AI image generations to be off putting - And a fair chunk of the remainder not really caring, and a small minority finding it cool/useful.
That experts main position, was the human touch was lost and the volunteer of the local football club would most likely get more people to stadium if they asked a bunch of 2nd graders to draw match day posts.
Because it would genuinely connect to people. So yeah, a lot of smaller businesses and volunteers are currently having a feeling all of this AI gen is giving them more traffic and attention, but in reality they’re getting more attention because they went from doing nothing to doing something
Isn’t a beer bar just a bar?
Nah, it’s a poncy pub.
A bar retains the ponce but lacks beer.
Typically, one expects a “bar” to have beer and liquor and the ability to make at least basic mixed drinks (rum and Coke, gin and tonic, etc.).
A “beer bar” usually has a wider variety of beers on draft and no liquor or mixed drinks.
Damn you could just have a lot of beers and liquor as well, sounds gimmicky
Some places have different licensing costs and requirements for places that serve beer and wine only vs also serving spirits.
Upvoting this obviously human response
Never heard of this shit, ngl. In Pittsburgh you can still smoke in bars, even ones that serve food
I’d probably have better luck shorting stocks if I could trigger a (rightful) panic like this guy can.
I’ve come to realize that I was assuming that there was a limit somewhere to “the market staying irrational”. I’m not so sure anymore
Tesla is all you need to look at regarding that.
always been this way
You could argue that a heavily debt-based business that requires years and years of more debt before becoming profitable would respond to rising interest rates quite negatively, but, yeah, the whole thing is already enitrely irrational.
I’m keeping some popcorn in reserve for OpenAI’s IPO.
I don’t get why they haven’t gone already.
If they don’t get their IPO off before the bubble pops, they might be losing out on a trillion with a capital T
Well that ship has SAILED, either way
- They are true believers
- They know they’ll get a bail out because they are too big to fail
- When everyone sees their S-1, it’s gonna make WeWork look like fucking Amazon
Because there is no way he gets 1 Trillion in an IPO the moment their finances become public, and that is the bare minimum he needs so he doesn’t get ripped to shreds.
And we already know they’re due to run completely out of money sometime in 2027. And getting more users only increases their expenses, with no real path to profitability in sight
That’s why i postulate that they will be bailed out, for the simple reason that the US military and 3-letter-agencies do not care if you can make money with this tech. They care about the amount of control it gives them.
If they get bailed out it means that the Military-Industrial complex has it’s fingers so deep in OpenAI and Anthropic that they wear them like a glove.
Edit: the news actually are developing faster than i thought. Jay Clayton, a Three-Letter-Agency guy being called upon to be responsible for AI by Trump makes my prediction a certainty.
But the question is whether or not they’re actively holding debt or just letting themselves get diluted through investments.
There’s more supply than demand for compute at the moment, so Microsoft is more than happy to buy ownership through Azure credits - Likewise Amazon is with AWS credits
Oh, they’re definitely holding debt in addition to whatever else the hell is going on with their shell games.
It’s less about fundamentals and more about what investors believe about the market. That’s why Musk is so good at manipulating the market, he’s convincing enough for many investors.
The market has never been rational.
the market is irrational
🧑🚀🔫🧑🚀
